Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
