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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the greatest shock.

However the latest field is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners declining and recent underperformers rising together. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still