A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
